The program included Dr. Norbert Reithofer, CEO of BMW; Dieter Posch, Hesse province minister of state for transportation; Cem Ozdemir, chairman of the German Green Party; Parag Khanna, senior fellow of the New America Foundation; Dr. Barbara Lenz director of the Institute of Transport Research at the German Aerospace Centre; historian Dr. Kurt Moser and noted German future fiction writer Frank Schatzing.
Their remarks had more to do with the situation in Germany, but there are things North Americans should be thinking about, too.
Posch says any change in transportation requires changes in standards, values and urban structure.
"Mobility doesn’t mean simply building infrastructure but understanding the motivation of people to move."
He sees an ongoing change in the significance of the auto. Vehicles are now kept an average of eight years in Germany, he says, adding that mobility is absolutely possible without the automobile.
Discussing electric vehicles he says he’d rather see electrically-propelled trucks which would cut fuel consumption and drastically reduce noise.
Change will have to occur on current infrastructure which must be more efficient but "the objective must be that no one should be restricted in mobility. It must be affordable for everyone."
Fiction writer Frank Schatzing was at one time creative director for Toyota in Germany.
He says global markets have resulted in vehicles that "don’t meet our standards or our needs" and adds that electric mobility will be the best answer in the future.
He branded market research a failure.
"Market researchers can’t tell me about the individual needs of a single person so they concentrate on target groups," he says. "Target groups can only confirm the present".
“We’ve gone from a nation that wanted to do everything correctly to a nation that wants to avoid mistakes. There’s a lack of courage to do something cheeky.
"Technology as such is nothing evil," he says. "It is something positive."
Reithofer says car companies need time to make large changes. "We must put ourselves in 2020 and look at what changes you need to make now to achieve the goals set for 2025. If you have a vehicle life cycle of seven years, you only have one and a half life cycles and you’re in 2021. If, in 2018, you see you made a mistake, you have no response time."
He points out that BMW agreed to a CO2 emissions goal of 95 grams by 2025 "and we have developed the i-car".
"This is not an alibi car. We’ve gone from 200 grams to 150 grams and it has cost us billions. To go from 150 to 95 grams we need plug-in hybrids, turbocharging, e-vehicles and three-cylinder engines."
He says change will encompass the entire fleet: petrol and diesel with a tech package including automatic start/stop, better engine breathing and regenerative braking.
Whatever changes are made, he warns that less-populated areas must be considered in order to be successful.
Lenz says manufacturers are changing their philosophies but the topic of mobility goes beyond the automobile.
"The number of vehicles per capita is stagnating,” she says. “It’s true in Canada, the U.S. and Europe, people love to have cars not necessarily to drive them but perhaps for emergency where they can say ‘I still have my car.’"
She says the climate change discussion has changed "because the people involved in transport discussions have not grown up with the car as a favourite toy."
So what will we see in the next 10 years or so?
Historian Moser says that in the 1980s the prevailing pessimism was that the car had met its demise.
"The car was reinvented in the ’90s and in view of the repeated reinvention of the auto, I’d put my money on the continuation of the internal combustion engine."
He sees the downsizing of the automobile and affordable mobility.
"More and more depends on what the individual cities and states do," says Khanna. "I’m talking about behaviour change" like sharing an automobile.
He predicts the mass production of small electric cars and that "the Indians will be market leaders."
Ozdemeir says autos will have a future as a constituent of mobility, not the only means.
"If you don’t have cars in rural areas there is less freedom," he says. "Maybe now car companies can become mobility companies.
He says developed countries must lead the way to prevent emerging nations from "repeating our mistakes."
Lenz says a prime topic in 10 years will still be "how can we include all the people with the new mobility."
Reithofer sees more compact cars equipped with three-cylinder turbocharged engines, plug-in hybrids. E-cars, he says, will account for five to 10% of the vehicles sold.
So, in the end, it appears there’s a consensus that change is upon us and will continue but there’s only limited agreement on where that change will lead us in the end.